A room that arrives on a pallet. A company that keeps owning it.
Hardware sold through a configurator, renewed through a lease, serviced by robots that walk on the creases. Every bet below has a gate, a price and an exit.
Origami from packaging to architecture, and from product to service.
“ORIJO (ori = fold, jo = one tatami) turns origami from packaging into architecture: thick-panel rigid-foldable barrel vaults, Miura wings and Kresling masts whose creases are ribs, gutters and robot rails. Every function is a 910 x 1820 mm organ that plugs into one floor socket. A configurator sizes water, energy and food from physics, a licensed micro-factory cuts it, a 40 ft container carries three vault rooms as road-legal half-shell packs, two people and a small robot unfold it in a day, and Anyground keeps owning, servicing and renewing every part.”
concept.json · thesis
- i
Transport density sells the site
Three vault rooms per 40 ft high-cube as road-legal half-shell packs; two people and a small robot unfold a room in a day, no crane, no foundation pour.
- ii
Physics sizes the order
The configurator returns litres, kWh, kilograms and nights from the same coefficients the engineers use, then the nearest licensed micro-factory cuts the kit.
- iii
Renewal is the revenue
Anyground keeps owning the organs and finances their replacement inside a lease: the shikinen twin-pad model, cut over in minutes.
Five phases. No phase starts until its gate is passed.
Each phase sells something real while it proves the next risk. Select a phase to see what is built, what must be measured and what is sold.
2027–01 to 2027–12
Bench prove the hinge
Build
KASANE hinge rig (M01 hinge ≥ 500 cycles by month 4), half-length YOSHI shell, KUMO-2 bench, two HATA cassettes in a reefer container, JO-PORT tiles, TSURU v0
Gate G1 target
- hinge passes 2,000 cycles and box q50 ≤ 1.5 m³/(h.m²)
- cone-calorimeter fire screen
- half-length YOSHI deploys ≤ 4 h with shell q50 ≤ 1.5
- KUMO ≥ 0.3 L/kg/day field (CaCl2) or ≥ 0.2 (MOF-303)
What is sold
MIURA-W canopies, KRES masts and KUMO benches to research and remote-site operators (unoccupied, staffed)
2028–01 to 2028–12
Pavilion first sleepers
Build
Owned showroom campground (MUJI lesson) with 6 HOSHI pods + 1 YOSHI-4 lounge in a temperate site and a 3-key desert pilot
Gate G2 target
- 12 months, occupancy ≥ 60%, zero envelope failures, water availability ≥ 99.9%
- full-length YOSHI-4 winter logging and 20-cycle wear test passed
What is sold
Room nights; hotel pilot leases to landowners
2029–01 to 2030–12
Catalogue sell the system
Build
Public configurator, 2–3 licensed and state-certified micro-factories, IE home (under the Appendix BB threshold) and HATA-MURA farm SKUs
Gate G3 target
- 100 units in field, unit gross margin ≥ 30% (target), ≤ 15 working days from deposit and approved site survey to shipped kit
What is sold
Hardware + shikinen lease + consumables + service
2031–01 to 2033–12
Extreme polar, mountain, floating
Build
KITA station kits with polar/mountain partners; pontoon variants
Gate G4 target
- one winter-over station with water recovery ≥ 95%
What is sold
Research stations, resort clusters, disaster-dual-use water and shelter fleets
2034–01 onward
Tsuki license the grammar
Build
Partner-funded lunar analog stations; IP licensing to space habitat companies
Gate G5 target
- 30-day crewed unpressurised analog with total water recovery ≥ 85% (≥ 93% with a urine distiller) and a separate uncrewed bladder article bursting at ≥ 4x MDP
What is sold
Analog stations, licences; Earth catalogue continues
Seven revenue streams along one module’s life.
A module is paid for once at order, earns while it operates, and is paid for again when it is renewed. The streams below are the lifecycle, left to right.
-
01
Order
Configurator to licensed micro-factory
Hardware margin
Sale of modules and typologies through configurator
Micro-factory licensing
Per-module royalty on licensed production
-
02
Operate
Every day the site runs
Consumables
Mineral terroir cartridges, zeolite bed regeneration and liquid fertiliser offtake, sorbent cassettes, UV modules, chalk wash, seed cartridges
Service and fleet
Remote operations, TSURU lease, scheduled runner visits
Revenue share
Share of room-nights or farm output on Anyground-operated sites
-
03
Renew
Twin pad, swap, refurbish
Shikinen lease
Monthly lease per module with financed renewal; OpCo/PropCo structure for hotels
-
04
License
Later, partner-funded
Analog and licensing
Polar/lunar analog stations and grammar licences
Five typologies, priced as targets
Illustrative · not quotes
| Typology | Capex USD target | Area m² | Capex per m² calculated | Deploy days | Revenue or savings logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 HATA-MURA autonomous farm | 380k–700k | 89.3 | 4.3–7.8k | 5 | Revenue = kg/week x local delivered price P; P must be validated per site (remote premium, not commodity lettuce: Bowery/Plenty lesson). No sweep-sourced price is assumed. |
| T2 TABI-NO-YADO 6-key hotel | 450k–850k | 125.8 | 3.6–6.8k | 3 | Gross room revenue USD 330k-440k/yr (calculated: 6 keys x 365 x USD 251 ADR x 60–80% occupancy; ADR and occupancy from sweep benchmarks). Opex share not sourced; payback must be underwritten per site. |
| T3 IE home | 110k–190k | 36.4 | 3.0–5.2k | 2 | Benchmarks: Boxabl Casita USD 60k unit / 140k turnkey (2.33x site multiplier, retailer estimate); Ecocapsule off-grid EUR 2,130–2,265/m² (36.4 m² = EUR 78k-82k, calculated). ORIJO must justify its premium by farm, water … |
| T4 KITA research station | 1.2M–2.5M | 165.5 | 7.3–15.1k | 10 | Halley VI cost about GBP 26M for 2,000 m² = GBP 13k/m² (calculated); same rate x 165.5 m² = GBP 2.15M. ORIJO target is at or below that per m² with relocatability included. |
| T5 TSUKI lunar outpost | not estimable | 99.0 | Earth analog programme USD 2M-6M (target, partner funded) | — | Licensing and analog-station sales; no revenue assumed in base plan. |
Capex per m² divides the target capex range by the stated enclosed area. For scale: Ecocapsule off-grid sells at EUR 2,130–2,265 per m² and Halley VI cost about GBP 13k per m² (both from the benchmarks below). ORIJO must justify its premium over simple pods with water, energy and food autonomy and no site works.
The six-key hotel, on your assumptions.
TABI-NO-YADO: six gravity-dome suites, a barrel lounge and two service cores, off-grid. Move ADR, occupancy, capex and your operating cost share; payback and the ten-year cash line recompute from the same formula.
US glamping ADR 2025: USD 251 reported
Pods 60–80% reported
Target range USD 450–850k target
Your assumption. Opex, taxes and land rent are not sourced.
Payback map · ADR × occupancy
years · at your capex and opex share
ILLUSTRATIVE - targets and calculations only, not underwriting
Concept figure for six keys: gross room revenue USD 330,000–440,000 (calculated: 6 × 365 × 251 × 0.6–0.8). Opex, taxes and land rent unsourced; must be underwritten.
Thirteen builds, thirteen tests, thirteen ways to stop.
Every mechanism carries its own 12-month bench: what is built, what it costs, how it is tested, what counts as a pass and what kills it. Open a row for the full protocol.
M01 KASANE hinge EXPERIMENTAL 70k–150k
Build
2.4 m thick-panel Miura wall section (Tachi tapered panels) and a 3.64 m span x 1.82 m long rigid-foldable quadrilateral-panel vault strip (Chen/You offset panels; pattern verified at zero facet strain), both with axis-face membranes, opening-face bellows, edge closeouts, thermally broken latches and gaskets; a 2 × 2 x 2 m sealed test box built from the same facets; hinge coupons for ageing.
BOM · USD 70,000–150,000 including rigs, chamber rental and lab fees (materials only about 18,000–35,000)
Test
Water spray rig (EN 12865-style) on every opening-side crease; low-flow blower-door or duct-blaster test of the box (q50); 2,000 powered fold cycles on the full articles at ambient; UV and freeze-thaw ageing in parallel on hinge and bellows coupons (ISO 4892–2 / EN 12467-style blocks); latch tension and fatigue tests; hot-box or calibrated thermal-camera whole-wall U; sandbag uplift on the strip; fire screening by cone calorimeter (ISO 5660) on panel plus membrane laminate.
Pass
No water penetration in the spray sequence; box q50 ≤ 1.5 m³/(h.m²); membrane and bellows intact and leakage rise < 25% after 2,000 cycles; latch preload retained within 10%; coupons pass ageing blocks; cone-calorimeter results consistent with a target of Euroclass B-s2,d0 (EN 13501–1), with NFPA 285 as the US route.
Kill
Membrane delamination before 500 cycles, box q50 > 3.0 m³/(h.m²) with gasket, or water penetration at any opening-side crease (bellows)
Fallbackoccupied enclosures revert to the v2 rule (fixed insulated rooms, origami only on unoccupied canopies and wings).
M02 YOSHI vault EXPERIMENTAL 60k–120k
Build
Precondition: M01 hinge built and through at least 500 test cycles by month 4. Then one half-length (3.64 m, 2-bay) full-section YOSHI shell on a test pad with ASHI legs, gable portal, haunch slides and geared winch; temperate 80 mm panels; pattern verified at zero facet strain before tooling.
BOM · USD 60,000–120,000
Test
Fold simulation vs measured pack envelope; 5 timed deploy/retract cycles with 2 people + TSURU v0; winch force and haunch-slide travel log; water-bladder roof load to 1.5x the pilot-site design snow load (ASCE 7–22 basis); wind uplift by bladder/winch rig; blower door (q50). Winter thermal logging and the 20-cycle wear test move to a month 12–18 gate on the full-length shell.
Pass
Measured pack within the 3.70 × 2.30 × 1.10 m envelope; half-shell deploys ≤ 4 h with no crane; deflection within FE prediction +/- 20%; q50 ≤ 1.5 m³/(h.m²) at month 12 (fallback ≤ 2.5).
Kill
Facets need > 25% extra mass for stiffness, deployment needs a crane, or leakage cannot be brought below q50 3.0 m³/(h.m²)
Fallbackfreeze occupied YOSHI and sell F2/F3 wings and masts on fixed rooms.
M03 ASHI legs COMMERCIAL→SPECULATIVE 25k–60k
Build
Leg set with screw piles, jacks, pin locks and bracing for the M02 half-length test shell; electric HRV frost pre-heater; one rooftop-ballast feasibility calculation with a structural engineer, using commercial pallet boxes or bagged sand (no custom crate mould).
BOM · USD 25,000–60,000
Test
Levelling accuracy on a graded slope with stepped sill; pile pull-out and lateral load tests; leg and bracing lateral test at 1.5x design shear; frost pre-heat performance in a cold chamber or winter site.
Pass
Level within +/- 5 mm after trim; pull-out ≥ 2x design uplift; lateral capacity per leg ≥ 1.5 × 1/n of design wind shear; HRV intake above -5 C (target) in local winter.
Kill
Screw piles cannot meet uplift plus lateral load at typical soils without concrete
Fallbackswitch to precast pad footings and keep the leg and jack system.
M04 JO-PORT COMMERCIAL→EXPERIMENTAL 35k–60k
Build
Six floor tiles with spread datums, floating port boxes and isolated fluid islands, plus three organs: a buildable DC greywater test organ (pump, filter, UV, tanks, 50–150 kg), a 10–15 kWh LiFePO4 rack and an NFT farm rack; DC precharge and protection electronics; test rig.
BOM · USD 35,000–60,000
Test
500 mate/unmate cycles with ISO 12103–1 A4 coarse dust and mud; interstitial pressure-decay tests; electrical precharge faults; datum repeatability by CMM or dial-indicator rig at the far end of the module; two-person swap timing; urine-drain struvite run.
Pass
Zero leaks and zero unsafe enables in 500 cycles; datum repeatability ≤ 0.5 mm at the far end after 500 dusty cycles; swap < 60 min by two people; robot swap timing only if TSURU is available.
Kill
> 1% false mates or seal damage from dirt
Fallbacksplit the port into a datum tile plus a separate hand-connected utility panel.
M05 KUMO loom COMMERCIAL→EXPERIMENTAL 15k–35k
Build
KUMO-2 bench: two beds, 2 × 2 kg sorbent (CaCl2-hydrogel first, MOF-303 if purchasable), glazed solar-thermal collector with a PV-T preheat panel, night-cooled condenser mass separate from storage, treatment train with CO2 dosing; at an arid field site plus a climate chamber.
BOM · USD 15,000–35,000
Test
90 days of logged L/kg/day against night RH and temperature on one cycle per day; condenser temperature log; residual loading at end of each release; collector heat delivered per litre; PV yield vs a ventilated reference panel; full potable lab panel after treatment; salt carry-over checks.
Pass
≥ 0.3 L/kg/day field mean at 20–40% night RH for CaCl2 composites, or ≥ 0.2 L/kg/day for MOF-303, on one cycle per day; measured heat ≤ 4 kWh_th/L; ≤ 3% annual PV yield loss vs a ventilated reference panel; potable lab pass.
Kill
< 0.15 L/kg/day or unsolved salt carry-over
Fallbackbuy commercial hydropanels or AWG/MOF units (SOURCE, AirJoule, Ahbstra class) for make-up and keep the recycle-first architecture.
M06 MOTTAINAI loop COMMERCIAL→EXPERIMENTAL 15k–40k
Build
Household-scale loop: commercial urine-diverting toilet, urine storage/acidification tank, regenerated zeolite exchange columns, NFT lettuce rack plus zeoponic seedling trays and a substrate bed, BSF bin, greywater recycler (WOTA BOX rental where available), filtered CO2 transfer line, sanitary holding tank.
BOM · USD 15,000–40,000
Test
12 months nitrogen and water mass balance; edible-tissue pathogen and pharmaceutical tests; zeoponic trays and NFT vs Hoagland control for 3 cycles; sodium trend and bleed volume; odour and user-acceptance logs.
Pass
No pathogen exceedance in edible tissue; grey reuse ≥ 90% measured with make-up water logged separately; 20–50% of excreted urine N recovered into crops or exports with N balance closed within +/-10%; yield ≥ 85% of control.
Kill
Urine-derived fertiliser fails food-safety tests
Fallbackroute it to ornamentals, landscape and fertiliser offtake, keep the grey loop and BSF. Regulator refusal is a jurisdictional risk (Aurin is approved for edible crops in Switzerland), not a global kill.
M07 HATA loom COMMERCIAL→EXPERIMENTAL 50k–100k
Build
In a reefer container, independent of YOSHI, TSURU, JO-PORT and MOTTAINAI: two HATA-4 cassettes, one cherry-tomato (or strawberry with bumblebee fallback) fruit wall with rail arm, one duckweed shelf, local-first firmware. Commissioned by month 4, then 6 months of logged production on mineral nutrient. Urine-charged zeolite runs as a separate bench trial with pathogen and pharmaceutical assays before any edible harvest.
BOM · USD 50,000–100,000
Test
Six months of continuous production with logged crew minutes, kWh/kg, pick success and fruit damage, pathogen incidents; separate zeoponic bench trial.
Pass
≥ 6.5 kg greens/week/cassette (or the equivalent per m² of finishing-tier area) at ≤ 15 kWh/kg; ≤ 30 crew min/week/cassette; pick success ≥ 65% with ≤ 5% fruit damage at fixed coordinates (80% stretch).
Kill
> 60 crew min/week/cassette, > 20 kWh/kg, or < 5 kg/week/cassette after two cycles
Fallbacksell the farm as a staffed workcell (v2 position), not as autonomous.
M08 IRORI spine COMMERCIAL→EXPERIMENTAL 20k–45k
Build
Test hut in a cold climate with DC spine, LFP + Na-ion zoning, kotatsu table and heated platform, and an A/B of a 0.5 t radiant hearth against a heat-pump water tank.
BOM · USD 20,000–45,000
Test
One winter: hearth uncontrolled release vs prediction at 20 C ambient; useful heat per PV kWh for hearth vs tank; A/B nights at conventional vs lowered setpoint with comfort votes; 72 h keep-alive drill at -20 C with heating off.
Pass
Hearth uncontrolled release within 20% of the calculated value (about 14%/day) and touch faces ≤ 45 C; ≥ 15% heating energy reduction at equal comfort votes; comms and sensors alive 72 h at -20 C on a 2–5 kWh Na-ion bank alone, and the bank reaches ≥ 80% charge after warming to -15 C.
Kill
Hearth loss > 20%/day or useful heat per PV kWh below the tank's
Fallbackdrop the hearth as an energy store and sell it only as a comfort option; the heat-pump tank stays the default.
M09 TSURU robot EXPERIMENTAL 340k–580k
Build
TSURU v0 on a 7.28 m bench rail and the 3.64 m rail of the M02 half-length test shell, with petal-lock feet, bolted sockets and a continuous fall-arrest trolley. Cable kit moves to month 12–24.
BOM · USD 40,000–80,000 BOM plus about 300,000–500,000 labour (2–3 FTE)
40k–80k BOM + 300k–500k labourTest
Human baseline times measured first; then 200 trials each of latch verify and filter-cartridge swap; wind, rain, grit and ice in sockets; fall-arrest drop tests.
Pass
≥ 95% autonomous completion; zero dropped payloads; zero failed locks under load; mean task time within 2x the measured human baseline.
Kill
< 80% completion after redesign
FallbackTSURU becomes a human-carried tool and rails stay as datums; service by local runners.
M10 FLIP-FOLD skin TRL 2–3 15k–35k
Build
Twenty 0.83 m² louvre facets with pivots, toggles and wind locks on two instrumented rooftop rigs (hot-dry and cold sites), plus a bench cycler in a climate chamber.
BOM · USD 15,000–35,000 (facets about USD 150–400 each, 2 rigs about USD 3–6k each with pyranometer and loggers, bench cycler, site logistics)
Test
Bench: heat-lamp cycling every 20 min at -30 C and +60 C for 5,000 cycles. Field: 12 months of state, delta-T, interior heat gain, soiling and reflectance logging.
Pass
≥ 5,000 bench flips without failure; no wind-driven flips in field; solar reflectance ≥ 0.90 after 12 months with a monthly dry brush; no limit cycling in field logs.
Kill
Mechanism fails < 1,000 bench cycles
Fallbackship the seasonal manual-flip SKU only.
M11 FOLD-TO-ORDER COMMERCIAL→SPECULATIVE 800k–1.7M
Build
Configurator v0 for three SKUs plus one containerised micro-factory (CNC router, vacuum laminator, one cobot) in a leased shed; pilot on non-occupied SKUs (farm or greenhouse, often exempt as agricultural buildings) or in one pre-approved state.
BOM · USD Hardware 150,000–350,000; software and engineering staff about 600,000–1,200,000 (3–5 FTE for 12 months); certification and permits 50,000–150,000
150k–350k Hardware + 600k–1.2M software and engineering staff + 50k–150k certification and permitsTest
Three paying pilot orders end-to-end; BOM error, lead time, engineering hours per order, site-estimate error after survey; one state modular plan review of a catalogue SKU.
Pass
Each order shipped in ≤ 15 working days from deposit plus approved survey, BOM error ≤ 5%, engineering ≤ 20 h per order, final site works within the +/-15% cap.
Kill
> 20 engineering hours per order after the third order, or catalogue SKUs fail a state modular plan review
Fallbacknarrow the catalogue to fixed configurations sold like MUJI Hut.
M12 SHIKINEN lease COMMERCIAL→EXPERIMENTAL 40k–90k
Build
Lease about 10 pilot units with telemetry and twin pads for water and battery organs, plus a spare pool of 2 water and 2 battery modules; run at least 2 deliberate full-organ swaps per unit (one water, one battery), swapping early on purpose.
BOM · USD 40,000–90,000 for telemetry, contracts and firmware escrow; spare-module pool and logistics listed separately and costed from M04, M06 and M08
Test
12 months of scheduled, condition-based and deliberate swaps; measure cut-over time, crew-hours, truck-km and refurbishment cost per returned module.
Pass
(M + Lg) ≤ 15% of L; actual refurbishment yield ≥ the assumed residual R; water availability ≥ 99.9% and battery ≥ 99.5%; planned swaps within the interruption target.
Kill
(M + Lg) > 25% of L, or refurbishment yield < 50% of R
Fallbacksell hardware outright with an optional service plan.
M13 TSUKI outpost SPECULATIVE 350k–850k
Build
Two separate partner-funded test articles. (A) Uncrewed pressure article: a sub-scale bladder with Vectran or UHMWPE webbing restraint (not drop-stitch) between two domed end-caps. (B) Crewed 30-day unpressurised analog: KURA core, YOSHI shell with lockable hinges and about 0.25 m of sandbags (lunar-equivalent load), testing water loop, power brick and wellbeing.
BOM · USD 250,000–600,000 for (B) with COTS ECLSS; plus about 100,000–250,000 for (A) test-facility time and webbing fabrication (partner/grant funded)
250k–600k (B) with COTS ECLSS + 100k–250k (A) test-facility time andTest
(A) hydrostatic or pneumatic burst targeting 4x MDP; 24–72 h leak-decay at MDP. (B) 30-day crewed stay with daily weighed water mass balance and crew wellbeing logs.
Pass
(A) leak rate ≤ 0.1–0.2% of volume per day and burst ≥ 4x MDP. (B) total water recovery = recovered potable mass / total wastewater mass incl. urine, greywater and condensate ≥ 85% without urine processing (≥ 93% if a urine distiller is included); no crew-safety incidents.
Kill
Not a company-funded line
Fallbackcontinues only with partner or grant funding.
Bars on a log scale. Ranges in parentheses in the source (for example materials-only subtotals) are not added again.
64 named risks, each with an owner and an exit.
The single most important risk is the KASANE hinge: a weathertight, insulated building hinge with an opening-face bellows is unbuilt. If it fails its gate, occupied rooms revert to fixed insulated shells and origami stays on canopies and wings.
What the market already taught
- Vertical farm failures
Bowery > USD 700M raised, closed 2024; Plenty Chapter 11 2025; Freight Farms Chapter 7 2025 reported
- Boxabl
USD 60k unit / 140k turnkey (retailer estimate, ecoprefabs.com); 2025 revenue USD 1.5M, net loss 57.5M; 38% built-to-delivered (285 of 744) reported
- Glamping market
USD 2.3–6B global, about 10–12% CAGR (reports disagree 2–3x) reported
- Freight Farms lesson
Vendor-cloud lock-in kills customers. ORIJO: Local-first open firmware, escrow.
- Boxabl lesson
Folding transport is not a business; site works and permits are. ORIJO: No foundation, off-grid, revenue-attached typologies, asset-light factories.
- MUJI lesson
One SKU, one price; showroom you can sleep in. ORIJO: Autonomous systems inside the essential form.
-
M01KASANE hinge6
- UV and abrasion ageing of the coated fabric and bellows at outside creases
- Ice formation in valley drainage channels and condensation at crease lines in cold climates
- Fire performance of FRP and foam cores (no code route proven yet)
- Thermal bridging at latches and edge closeouts
- Latch fatigue under wind reversal
- PFAS regulation of fluoropolymer coatings
If killedoccupied enclosures revert to the v2 rule (fixed insulated rooms, origami only on unoccupied canopies and wings).
-
M02YOSHI vault6
- Snow drift on crease valleys creating unbalanced loads
- Tolerance stack-up across about 300 m of crease and dozens of vertices
- Haunch slide friction and peak winch force near the folded state
- Pack envelope not yet confirmed by fold simulation
- Code approval of a novel folded shell
- Hinge wear during repeated relocations
If killedfreeze occupied YOSHI and sell F2/F3 wings and masts on fixed rooms.
-
M03ASHI legs6
- Frost heave on piles
- Low lateral capacity of helical piles in soft soil
- Wind sliding on roofs and roof structural capacity under ballast
- Trench safety and excavation cost where an earth tube is chosen
- Biofouling, fitting corrosion, permitting of open-water heat exchange, mooring and stability for the pontoon foot
- Custom crate tooling (about USD 50–150k mould) if a jo crate is ever made
If killedswitch to precast pad footings and keep the leg and jack system.
-
M04JO-PORT6
- Dirt and ice in couplers
- Struvite and calcium scale fouling in urine lines
- House DC load above about 2 kW erasing the 48 V DC advantage
- Standardising before the catalogue is stable
- DC arc-fault protection maturity
- WOTA Unit availability outside Japan and pilot regions
If killedsplit the port into a datum tile plus a separate hand-connected utility panel.
-
M05KUMO loom5
- MOF availability and price unknown
- Collector area per person larger than the roof allows at low-yield sites
- Dust fouling of sorbent beds
- Salt leaching from composites
- Condenser mass too warm after hot nights
If killedbuy commercial hydropanels or AWG/MOF units (SOURCE, AirJoule, Ahbstra class) for make-up and keep the recycle-first architecture.
-
M06MOTTAINAI loop6
- Regulatory acceptance of urine-derived fertiliser varies by jurisdiction
- Pharmaceutical residues
- Sodium and salt build-up in recirculating nutrient
- Nitrogen surplus with no local outlet
- Humidity, VOC and bioaerosol transfer from living unit to farm
- BSF economics failed industry-wide (internal service only)
If killedroute it to ornamentals, landscape and fertiliser offtake, keep the grey loop and BSF. Regulator refusal is a jurisdictional risk (Aurin is approved for edible crops in Switzerland), not a global kill.
-
M07HATA loom5
- Energy cost of indoor greens (only high-value or remote-premium crops pay)
- Crop pathogens in closed systems
- Pick success below human level in cluttered canopies
- Food-safety and GAP certification of urine-derived substrate
- Vertical-farm sector failures colour investor perception
If killedsell the farm as a staffed workcell (v2 position), not as autonomous.
-
M08IRORI spine4
- Surface temperature and fire safety of a hot hearth indoors
- Floor loading of any thermal mass
- Na-ion stationary ecosystem maturity and supply concentration
- Winter PV deficit at high latitude
If killeddrop the hearth as an energy store and sell it only as a comfort option; the heat-pump tank stays the default.
-
M09TSURU robot4
- Ice, grit and water in sockets preventing lock
- Liability for falls and for people below
- Rail continuity across transverse creases
- Scope creep toward general-purpose robots
If killedTSURU becomes a human-carried tool and rails stay as datums; service by local runners.
-
M10FLIP-FOLD skin4
- Soiling and reflectance loss in desert dust
- Pivot and toggle fatigue
- Wind flutter and back-driving
- UV and creep of hygromorph flaps
If killedship the seasonal manual-flip SKU only.
-
M11FOLD-TO-ORDER4
- Permit variance across jurisdictions
- State modular certification per plant delaying occupied units
- Partner micro-factory quality
- Configurator promises exceeding physics or site reality
If killednarrow the catalogue to fixed configurations sold like MUJI Hut.
-
M12SHIKINEN lease4
- Balance-sheet intensity of owning hardware (cost of capital dominates)
- Reverse-logistics cost per swap at distributed sites
- Too few failure events in a small pilot to estimate availability
- Customer preference to own
If killedsell hardware outright with an optional service plan.
-
M13TSUKI outpost4
- No flight heritage; Earth analogs reach TRL 3–4 for layout and operations only
- Pressure-vessel redesign and softgoods certification
- Regulatory and launch dependence
- Distraction from Earth revenue
If killedcontinues only with partner or grant funding.
Benchmarks used on this page
concept.json · business.benchmarks
- Glamping marketUSD 2.3–6B global, about 10–12% CAGR (reports disagree 2–3x)quantumrun.com
- US glamping ADRUSD 251 (2025); occupancy pods 60–80%mobilehomebuild.com
- Pod vs cabin capexpod USD 30k-85k vs cabin 140k-410k all-in; deploy 4–12 weeks vs 8–18 monthsmobilehomebuild.com
- Glamping share of camping29% (2025)rawtravel.tv
- Postcard Cabins29 sites, > 1,200 cabins, acquired by Marriott Dec 2024hoteldive.com
- AutoCamp9 sites, > 700 units, > USD 150M lifetime revenue; Reg CF 2026moderncampground.com
- BoxablUSD 60k unit / 140k turnkey (retailer estimate, ecoprefabs.com); 2025 revenue USD 1.5M, net loss 57.5M; 38% built-to-delivered (285 of 744)startupfortune.com
- EcocapsuleEUR 2,130–2,265/m² off-grid with 8.3 kWp / 23.2 kWhecocapsule.sk
- Living VehicleUSD 640k for 6 kW PV / 72 kWh trailertheautopian.com
- MUJI HutJPY 3.0M all-in for 9.1 m² (2017)ateliercabin.com
- ICON Phoenixfrom USD 25/sq ft walls; 80/sq ft with foundation and roof (launch pricing)inceptivemind.com
- Vertical farm failuresBowery > USD 700M raised, closed 2024; Plenty Chapter 11 2025; Freight Farms Chapter 7 2025elevenflo.com
Phase 1 sells canopies, masts and water benches while the hinge is proven.